Demographic Winter
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Kerby Andersonnever miss viewpoints

The fertility rate in this country hit a record-low last year. The total fertility rate dropped to 1.62 births per woman (we need 2.1 for replacement). But the US decline in fertility is not unique. Nearly every country in the developed world and most countries in the developing world face long-term population decline.

Columnist Don Feder was on my radio program recently to predict that a demographic winter is coming. He talked about countries in Asia that used to be known for their high birthrates. Japan’s economy is slipping into recession, due in part to lower domestic demand because of a falling population. China is set to lose 60 percent of its population by the end of the century.

South Korea has the world’s lowest fertility rate. Almost a quarter of the workforce is 70 and older. There are more Koreans in their 70s than in their 20s.

At the 2023 Natal Conference, Kevin Dolan warned that if birth rates continue to plummet, civilization will end. He predicts we “will pass through a bottleneck tighter than the Black Death.” As a millennial he laments that only 60 percent of his peers will marry and have children. The percentage will likely be even lower for Gen Z.

The one exception to this decline is religious people. Although he is Jewish, he acknowledged that Catholics and Evangelicals do have more children. To that list he also added Orthodox Jews and Mormons. Religious people have children because procreation is an act of faith. I quoted Psalm 127 that reminds us that “children are a heritage from the Lord,” and we can be blessed if we have a quiver full of them.

We are headed for a demographic winter unless we return to a biblical view of procreation and family.viewpoints new web version

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